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Prediction for CME (2022-12-24T08:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-12-24T08:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22972/-1
CME Note: A fast and faint loop-like eruption seen to the south and west in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The likely source is a point sourced eruption from AR3169 (N19W19). The CME appears to be much wider in running difference imagery than it appears in white light imagery or coronal/EUV imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-12-27T09:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-12-24 14:15Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 617
Longitude (deg): W020
Latitude (deg): S37
Half-angular width (deg): 34

Notes: Low confidence in details and timing given question marks around fit and complicated ENLIL model interactions.
Space weather advisor: Luca Greenough

Lead Time: 39.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-12-25T17:12Z

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